Sky News Political Editor Andrew Clennell says there are real difficulties in terms of predicting an election result given the vast discrepancies between polls in recent times.
“The Resolve Poll, in the Nine newspapers, has Labor’s primary at just 32 per cent and the government’s at 39,” Mr Clennell said.
“That’s a Morrison victory in anyone’s language. It also isn’t that far off the 2019 election result – Coalition 41 to Labor 33.
“But Newspoll has Coalition at 37 and Labor 38 – clearly a Labor victory. It results in a two party preferred result of 53 to 47.
“One thing that isn’t in dispute is Scott Morrison’s popularity has been slipping.
“But impossible to predict a result at the moment. As I understand it the main difference between Resolve and Newspoll is that Resolve forces the uncommitted – about eight per cent of the vote to commit.
“This results in a high minor party vote. Newspoll leaves the uncommitted out.”